Date saved: 2026-10-22 18:00 (PDT)
Sources: Hudson Institute, Steptoe LLP, Washington Institute, ONE BRIEF, Times Now World, Jack Hamilton Geopolitics, USTD/SISF
Key findings
US-Russia sanctions waiver and the diesel deal
- On October 16, 2026, President Trump waived parts of the new Russia sanctions package, citing US national interests, in an executive order that explicitly leaves existing Russia measures under earlier executive orders in place; critics argue the move weakens pressure on Moscow and raises questions about future sanctions enforcement and credibility with allies. (Source)
- Trump struck a new energy agreement with Vladimir Putin to return Russian diesel to global markets, framed as a strategy to lower fuel prices for US consumers; the move directly challenges the established European and UK sanctions regime and has sparked immediate debate in Washington and concern among NATO allies. (Source)
The proposed Trump-Putin-Xi summit and allied pushback
- Trump is weighing a reported proposal for a summit with Putin and Xi Jinping at the APEC summit in Shenzhen, China, on November 18-19, 2026; Ukrainian President Zelensky has insisted that Kyiv must participate in any negotiations concerning Ukraine's future, and Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha warned that excluding Ukraine could encourage Moscow to continue the war. (Source)
- EU officials have questioned Russia's commitment to peace and called for Europe to play a role in any settlement; US envoy Steve Witkoff is expected to travel to St. Petersburg for talks with Putin after discussions with Ukrainian and European representatives. (Source)
China's enabling role and the adversary coordination picture
- China is the key economic enabler of Russia's war effort, buying roughly 20% of Russian oil and gas and transacting about a third of Russian trade through the yuan to evade Western sanctions; China also buys almost all of Iran's oil despite a US-led sanctions regime arrayed against the Islamic Republic. (Source)
- At the Sydney International Strategy Forum 2026, Admiral John C. Aquilino warned that China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea are cooperating on military and technology sharing, economic support, and information operations in ways that are reshaping global security governance; the panel examined risks of conflict over Taiwan and lessons from the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East. (Source)
- A report from Steptoe LLP noted that US-China relations will remain adversarial but stable into 2026, with tariff truces and limited cooperation continuing, but that the Ukraine war will stress-test the transatlantic alliance and that NATO allies fear Russia's wartime economy has achieved a scale of production capable of sustaining operations against the alliance within a few years. (Source)
- John Mearsheimer argued that Europe's post-Cold War stability has depended heavily on the United States and NATO, but that the balance may be changing as Washington focuses on China and the Indo-Pacific; he warned that a major US drawdown could weaken NATO and put pressure on the European Union. (Source)
The great-power landscape in October 2026 is defined by a US administration simultaneously easing pressure on Russia and trying to pivot toward China (a combination that has alliance managers in Europe and Indo-Pacific capitals scrambling to figure out what American commitments are actually worth. On October 16, President Trump waived selected provisions of a new Russia sanctions law, citing US national interests, in an executive order that critics argue weakens pressure on Moscow and raises questions about future sanctions enforcement. The waiver came alongside a reported arrangement involving Russian diesel exports returning to global markets) a move framed as a way to lower fuel prices for American consumers but one that directly challenges the European and UK sanctions regime against Moscow and has NATO allies questioning whether the Western sanctions architecture is holding.
The timing is politically charged: Trump is also weighing a reported proposal for a trilateral summit with Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping at the APEC summit in Shenzhen in November 2026, a meeting that would exclude Ukraine and that European officials have already pushed back on, calling for Europe to play a role in any settlement. Ukraine's Foreign Minister warned that excluding Kyiv from negotiations about its future could encourage Moscow to continue the war. Meanwhile, China continues to play the key economic role in enabling Russia and Iran (buying almost all of Iran's oil despite a US-led sanctions regime and purchasing roughly 20% of Russia's oil and gas) and US adversaries are increasingly coordinating on military and technology sharing in ways that, according to Admiral John C. Aquilino, former US Indo-Pacific Command Commander, demand a closer defense, economic, and diplomatic response from democratic allies.
Source links
- Hudson Institute: America and Europe: A Blueprint for the Next Chapter
- Steptoe LLP: The New Rules of the Road: Top Global Risks for Businesses in 2026
- ONE BRIEF: Global Geopolitics 17 October 2026
- Times Now World: Zelensky Pushes Back as Trump-Putin-Xi Summit Looms
- Jack Hamilton Geopolitics: Trump Praises Putin's "Low Price" Diesel: Are Sanctions Dead
- United States Studies Centre: China, Russia, Iran and North Korea: Are US adversaries gaining the initiative?