Date saved: 2026-10-24 18:01 (PDT)
Sources: Reuters, Financial Times, AP, CNN, BBC, Al Jazeera, Wall Street Journal, Nikkei, SCMP, Business Standard, Restricted Handling, Just Security
Key findings
Russia sanctions waiver and Ukraine diplomacy
- President Trump issued an executive order on October 16 suspending numerous sanctions on Russia two days before they were due to take effect, justifying the move as being in the U.S. national interest. The order waives certain new duties and sanctions provisions while explicitly leaving existing Russia measures under earlier executive orders in place. (Source)
- Secretary of State Marco Rubio described an up-to-60-day review of the restrictions' global and U.S. economic effects, according to AP. The waiver postponed near-term costs while preserving presidential authority to activate penalties later. (Source)
- Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer called the move "Trump's deal with the devil keeps getting dirtier," and Representative Don Beyer said it "again betrays our Ukrainian partners and defies clear congressional intent." (Source)
- Trump's special envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner proposed that Europe should resume buying more Russian gas to incentivize Russia to end the war, but European officials reportedly recoiled at the idea. (Source)
- Putin proposed that he, Trump, and Chinese President Xi Jinping meet next month to talk about Ukraine, sources told the Wall Street Journal. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov confirmed discussions were taking place over a potential meeting. (Source)
US-China relations and technology controls
- The U.S. Treasury Department proposed a rule on October 22 to crack down on American high-tech investments such as supercomputing and artificial intelligence in China, Russia, North Korea, and other "countries of concern," codifying and expanding the Outbound Investment Security Programme. The inclusion of Russia came days after Trump waived sanctions on Russia following a diesel deal with Moscow. (Source)
- China expressed "firm opposition" to the Trump administration's sanctions on five Chinese companies connected to a former Google engineer accused of intellectual property theft, with the commerce ministry saying the move "severely harms the legitimate rights and interests of Chinese businesses." (Source)
- China hit back at a U.S. ban on DeepSeek's products for federal civilian agencies, with the DHS ordering agencies to remove DeepSeek and its affiliated products from their IT systems. (Source)
- Visa received approval to prepare for a domestic payments business in China, even as US-China tensions persist. (Source)
- Former Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd said US-China strategic competition would "keep escalating as world watches on" and pointed to a "full-on and complex rivalry in every dimension" for the superpowers. (Source)
Europe, NATO, and Middle East
- The European Commission estimated the Iran war has cost Europe more than $112 billion through disrupted trade and energy markets, according to NPR. (Source)
- UK Defense Secretary Wes Streeting announced Royal Air Force Typhoon jets would conduct defensive counter-air operations over Saudi Arabia to protect the country from Houthi attacks, after the Houthis killed 73 people in a missile strike on a government training camp in southern Yemen. (Source)
- The U.S. ordered some diplomats to leave Saudi Arabia amid Houthi attacks, with the State Department saying the rebel group has "increasingly engaged in hostilities against Saudi Arabia." (Source)
- Trump accused Iran of trying to drive up global oil prices ahead of the U.S. midterm elections, alleging in a Truth Social post that Tehran was making up reports of attacks and mines, and claimed that 75,000 protesters had died in Iran in less than seven months. (Source)
- European leaders gathered in Budapest for the 70th anniversary of the Hungarian revolution, with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen joining other foreign guests, signaling a new chapter in EU relations after the ouster of former Prime Minister Viktor Orbán. (Source)
North Korea, India, and other developments
- North Korea's Kim Jong-un arrived in China for his first visit in over a year, crossing the border via a newly opened bridge, as the countries move to deepen ties, according to South Korea. (Source)
- The U.S. proposed a rule to crack down on high-tech investments that could help adversaries boost their military power, part of a program that began in 2023 under President Biden and was codified and expanded by Congress in December 2025. (Source)
- Greece's former ambassador Kimberly Guilfoyle was fired after the Wall Street Journal obtained text messages showing she requested $100,000 from a Trump donor in exchange for administrative access, and she has filed a defamation lawsuit against the donor. (Source)
The central geopolitical story of the week is the United States stepping back from its role as the world's security guarantor while simultaneously waiving sanctions on Russia. On October 16, President Trump issued an executive order suspending numerous Russia-related sanctions two days before they were due to take effect, citing U.S. national interest. The move drew bipartisan backlash from Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, who called it "Trump's deal with the devil keeps getting dirtier," and from Representative Don Beyer, who said it "again betrays our Ukrainian partners." Secretary of State Marco Rubio described an up-to-60-day review of the restrictions' effects, but there is no immediate reversal path while Congress is away.
The sanctions waiver sits inside a larger diplomatic realignment. Trump and Xi Jinping met in Washington with what a close Trump aide described as "rare bonhomie," though serious differences persist. The U.S. Treasury proposed a rule to crack down on high-tech investments in China, Russia, North Korea, and other "countries of concern," and Beijing expressed "firm opposition" to U.S. sanctions on five Chinese companies connected to a former Google engineer. Europe is considering new quotas and tariffs to stem Chinese imports, even as an EU proposal to unfreeze some Russian assets drew a balk from European officials. The week's throughline is a U.S. that is trying to cut deals with Moscow and Beijing at the same time it presses both on technology controls, leaving allies to manage the consequences.
Source links
- Just Security: Early Edition October 19, 2026
- Restricted Handling: RH 10.19.26 Last 24-48 hrs Sanctions Waiver, Tech Controls
- Financial Times: US foreign policy - Trump envoy proposes Ukraine talks and summit with Putin and Xi
- CNN: Trump waives Russia-related sanctions before they kick in
- Business Standard: US proposes rule to crack down on high-tech investments in China
- SCMP: US-China strategic competition to keep escalating as world watches on, Rudd says
- AP: UK deploys jets to defend Saudi Arabia, and other Mideast developments
- Washington Post: World wires - Lula, Bolsonaro reach out to undecided voters
- George Friedman on Why the US is Stepping Back
- ONE BRIEF: Global Geopolitics 17 October 2026